Overall Threat Level Over Time
STABLE = diplomacy/sanctions only | MODERATE = incidents/proxy activity | SEVERE = direct strikes/confirmed casualties
Brent Crude Oil Price (USD) — Global Benchmark
GDELT Media Tone Score
0 to -3 Mildly Negative
-3 to -8 Hostile
Below -8 Crisis
Scale: 0 (neutral) to -100 (most hostile). Lower = more negative global media coverage.
AI-Estimated Fatalities — All Parties (Cumulative)
Cumulative total across all parties: US, Iran, Iraq, proxy fighters, and civilians. Estimated by Claude AI from headline language. Floor: 2,000+ as of Mar 13 2026. Not verified.
AI-Estimated Fatalities — US / Coalition Only (Cumulative)
US and coalition military deaths only. Confirmed minimum: 13 KIA as of Mar 13 2026 (including 6 in Iraq refueling crash). Estimated by Claude AI. Not verified.
🪖 UKMTO / JMIC Maritime Intelligence Advisory
Official Joint Maritime Information Centre advisory — Royal Navy / NATO. Auto-detects latest update number (Update-016, 017...) each run. Source: ukmto.org (publicly accessible PDF). Updated daily.
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🛢️ Strait of Hormuz — Tanker Traffic & Economic Impact
Live AIS-derived vessel transit counts, stranded ships, war-risk insurance premiums, and estimated daily global economic cost. Source: hormuzstraitmonitor.com + NewsAPI. Historical normal: ~138 vessels/day.
🛢️ Hormuz — Stranded Vessels & Insurance Premium Multiplier
Ships stranded in the region unable to transit (blue). War-risk insurance multiplier vs. normal premiums (orange, right axis). Normal insurance = 1x.
🗺️ Strait of Hormuz — Live Tanker Traffic Map (AIS)
MarineTraffic live embed — pre-centered on Strait of Hormuz. Tankers = green icons. Click any vessel for name, speed, destination. Use direct links below if map doesn't load.
AIS Note: All commercial vessels over 300 tons broadcast position, speed, course and destination automatically via AIS.
Tankers appear as green/orange icons on MarineTraffic. The Hormuz Crisis Monitor tracks live transit counts, stranded vessels, and insurance premiums.
If the iframe is blocked by your browser's content policy, use the direct links above — each opens pre-centered on Hormuz at zoom level 9.
🎯 Conflict Outcome Forecast — AI Wargame Analysis
Probability estimates updated each run. Based on RAND/Naval War College wargaming framework applied to current threat indicators. Not intelligence assessment — analytical model only.
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Outcome Probability Trend — Ceasefire vs Escalation vs Kharg Operation
How AI-estimated scenario probabilities have shifted over time as conflict data updates. Ceasefire (green), Escalation (red), Kharg Island Operation (orange).
US War Cost — Operation Epic Fury (Estimated Total, $Billions)
Anchored: Pentagon briefing $11.3B/6 days + $1B/day active ops rate. Sources: iranwarcost.com, CSIS, Penn Wharton. Not official — estimate only.